Crypto exchange Coinbase believes the odds of the SEC approving spot Ethereum ETFs by the end of the month stand between 30% to 40%.
In a May 15 report, Coinbase Institutional Research Analyst David Han asserted that the main factor that led the SEC to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs — the correlation between CME futures product and spot exchange rates — could also lead it to approve spot Ethereum ETFs.
Han said there is “room for surprise to the upside on this decision,” both on prediction markets and in the fact that Grayscale Ethereum Trust is trading at a 24% discount.
He conceded that the SEC’s silence has caused “uncertainty” and that spot ETH ETFs that specifically aim to engage in ETH staking are unlikely to gain approval.
Politics one possible factor
Coinbase is optimistic in part because of crypto’s key role in US politics. Han said that the SEC will spend political capital by denying spot ETH ETFs, a strategy that…
