Will the bond market rein in Donald Trump?

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Donald Trump drew cheers from supporters in one of his final rallies of the 2024 presidential campaign, when he vowed to “get interest rates brought way down”.

His Treasury secretary Scott Bessent echoed the pledge a few months later, saying that reducing America’s long-term borrowing costs would be a key priority for the new administration. 

But that aspiration will be tested in the coming months as investors navigate cross-currents caused by tariffs, immigration clampdowns and the potential for a deepening budget deficit. 

“The investment community in general is certainly uncertain, and perhaps nervous, but it’s not obvious whether they should be more worried about recession or inflation,” says David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.

Yields on 10-year US government bonds, a benchmark rate for trillions of dollars in assets around the globe, spiked to more than 4.8 per cent following Trump’s…

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