What the US election could mean for deficits, debt and the yield curve | articles

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Donald Trump’s position on the deficit has shifted since he first ran for president in 2016. Back then, the mantra was all about capping the debt and repaying money the country owes. In 2020 he blamed the Democrats for not helping pass spending cuts – but fast forward to today, and there is little mention of reining in the deficit. In fact, the 2024 GOP Platform document fails to mention the fiscal deficit or debt at all!

Should Trump win and Republicans sweep through Congress, the focus will be on a “second phase” of tax cuts in addition to an extension of the 2017 TCJA. This will involve sizeable tax cuts for corporates paid for by spending cuts/efficiency savings and tariffs placed on imported goods. Party officials are also of the view that tax cuts will more than pay for themselves through boosting the size of the economy and lifting revenues, even though the 2017 TCJA failed to achieve this.  

Trade policy is the…

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