Watch for the ripples in otherwise calm bond markets

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April Fool’s is a day, not a month. As investors limp into May, however, the feeling of being constantly unsure of what to believe persists. Despite the broad recovery in US equities since Donald Trump’s trade tariffs rattled markets around the world, long-term Treasury yields have not fully followed suit. Their reticence is a sign of a deeper shift in investor views of the US.

On the surface, the rebound looks strong. US equity benchmarks ended April off a mere 1 per cent since the eve of “liberation day” and have rallied 12 per cent from their lows. 

Bond markets appear to have recovered their poise, too, after a period where tumbling prices sent yields soaring, and would-be corporate borrowers were in effect left dangling. Benchmark US Treasury 10-year bond yields ended April pretty much where they…

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