US debt will become unsustainable and trigger default in about 20 years, if it stays on current path

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The Capitol building is seen through the American flags in Washington DC on October 20, 2022.Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto/Getty Images

  • US debt will become unsustainable in roughly 20 years if it doesn’t change course, a Penn Wharton Budget Model determined.

  • After that, no amount of tax hikes or spending cuts could prevent default “whether explicitly or implicitly.”

  • An implicit default would include debt monetization that produces significant inflation.

The US has roughly 20 years to change course on the size of its debt, or else a default of some form will be unavoidable, a Penn Wharton Budget Model determined in October.

Analysts looked at the $26.3 trillion of US debt held by the public, which excludes money the federal government owes itself in the overall outstanding debt total of $33 trillion.

“Under current policy, the United States has about 20 years for corrective action after which no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts…

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