U.S. Treasury notes and bonds are back to or near their lowest levels of 2024 as stocks outperform
- U.S. Treasury notes and bonds are back to or near their lowest levels of 2024.
- Rate cut odds for 2024 have plummeted, with the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut in March down to 17.5% today. Four cuts are fully discounted, with an 80% chance of a fifth cut by the end of the year.
- Bond volatility remains absent despite big swings over the past week.
Market update: U.S. 10-year yield up to 4.177%
Receding concerns around regional banks (sparked by New York Community Bank (NYCB)) and renewed optimism over the trajectory of the U.S. economy have led to a whipsaw start to February for bond markets. The damage is palpable: 2s (/ZTH4), 5s (/ZNH4) and 10s (/ZNH4) are at fresh yearly lows today, having erased all or nearly all of their progress since the start of December.
The January…
