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The spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bond yields reached a negative value of -0.38 percent in May 2024.
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury bond spread is generally considered to be an advance warning of severe weakness in the stock market. Negative spreads occurred prior to the recession of the early 1990s, the tech-bubble crash in 2000-2001, and the financial crisis of 2007-2008.
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