“While final structures will not be known until next year, in our view metals and bulk commodity markets had generally factored bi-lateral United States-China tariffs into demand projections, but not a multi-lateral trade war which drags in Canada, Mexico, Europe and key Asian economies.”
BMO forecasts 1.8% industrial production growth globally next year, but says it will be weighted in 2025’s first half because of a bounce in sentiment as president-elect Donald Trump takes office and China adjusts supportive policies. Growth is to ease in the second half as demand slows.
China policy uncertain
Visibility on China’s fiscal policy will likely remain clouded until the U.S. firmly sets its course under the new administration.
But BMO notes that the world’s second-largest economy “continues to perform better than underlying sentiment, and policy is loosening.”
What the bank’s analysts see so far…
