In 1956, the American geologist M. King Hubbert made a startling prediction: In a matter of decades, the supply of fuel on which so much of modern society depended would dwindle. Dubbed the “peak oil” theory, the concept held sway for decades as U.S. production of crude topped out in 1970, then declined. By 2009, however, the numbers started to turn, thanks to offshore drilling and new fracking technology, until U.S. crude oil output surpassed not just the country’s 1970 peak but that of every other crude-pumping nation throughout all of history.
Now, as the emissions spewed by burning all that crude help roast the planet, a new anxiety has started to grip energy policy: the possibility of peak mineral.
The technologies the world is banking on to wean us off fossil fuels all depend on minerals, in various quantities: the so-called white gold of lithium and the bluish metal cobalt needed for batteries; the brittle metalloid…
