The Bull and Bear Case for 2025

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It was an especially festive New Year’s for investors. The S&P 500 soared by 23 percent in 2024 to cap the best two-year run in a quarter-century, a rally that even many of Wall Street’s biggest bulls failed to predict.

This year, market veterans expect to see solid gains — but no repeat, DealBook’s Bernhard Warner reports. Why? There’s uncertainty — about the Trump administration’s economic agenda, inflation and the Fed’s next move on interest rates — amid concerns that investor fervor has made some stocks, especially those tied to the artificial intelligence boom, too pricey.

What experts are predicting: They see the benchmark index climbing to just below 6,700 by the end of 2025, according to FactSet, for a gain of about 13 percent from Tuesday’s close.

If analysts’ models are correct, it would mark a third consecutive year of double-digit annual gains for the S&P 500. The futures…

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