Underlying the reluctance to reduce supply — or the readiness to bring it back too soon — is the fact that demand is expected to rise rapidly over the longer term as the energy transition gathers pace. Geopolitical tensions — including the prospect of hefty tariffs — may also be encouraging miners to keep digging on fears the market could split into rival trade blocs.
“This swing supply dynamic could serve as a cap on price increases in 2025, as rapid restarts may lead to a more oversupplied market than currently forecast,” said Federico Gay, principal lithium analyst at industry consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
Benchmark Mineral sees North Asian lithium carbonate prices at $10,400 a ton this year, the same as at the end of 2024, according to Fastmarkets pricing. The average of four analyst estimates for next year came in at $10,685.
| Lithium carbonate – North Asia | 2025 forecast |
|---|---|
| Benchmark… |
