Risks To Adequate Electricity Supplies May Emerge In PJM By 2033; Extreme Cold Constraints On Natural Gas Availability Could Risk Outages As Early As 2026

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According to the report, a North American Electric Reliability Corporation analysis “concluded that PJM [regional grid] will have enough generation capacity to meet its reserve margin requirements through 2033 provided planned generation and transmission projects will be forthcoming in a timely manner.” 

However, the report also quotes NERC as saying, “there is potential for resource adequacy risks to emerge in PJM in 2033 and beyond and for operational risks to manifest as early as 2026, given certain scenarios, e.g., an extreme cold snap combined with constraints on natural gas availability.”

The PUC report says “longer-term forecasts highlight the need to carefully balance new generation and transmission projects with the pace of power plant retirements.

The report notes that Pennsylvania’s electricity usage grew nearly 3% in 2024, with significant industrial demand growth projected over the next five years — driven in large…

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