Over a few short years, many executives considering the decision to invest in renewable fuels have gone from asking, “Should my company invest?” to asking, “When and how should my company invest?” This shift reflects the need to balance long-term upside with short-term risks and uncertainties.
The renewable fuels industry has made significant strides, particularly since the passage of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022 and the EU’s revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED III and RED III.5) in 2023. Global production capacity more than doubled between 2021 and 2024 and could more than triple by 2028 in reasonable scenarios. Demand for drop-in renewable fuels will outpace traditional biofuels, and the need for renewable fuels that use waste-based feedstock (e.g., used cooking oil) and novel oil crops should grow significantly.
To put the opportunity in perspective, it’s plausible that by…
