Bi and his team used Dynamic Policy Evaluation, a data-driven approach for simulating real-world policy making. The most shocking result was that even if most countries decided to stop burning coal for electricity, this has almost zero impact on total future coal use.
Investigating the Powering Past Coal Alliance, launched at the world climate summit COP23 in 2017, the scientists sought to understand whether these countries’ efforts to cut coal would make it easier or harder for other countries to follow suit. That is, the coalition may grow as member states work to modernize their electricity sectors, but it may also lead to a rebound in coal use globally. The latter effect, often referred to as “leakage,” can arise due to market effects: if demand decreases in some places, so do prices, which in turn can increase demand elsewhere.
Interestingly, the scientists’ computer simulation shows that the most concerning leakage…
