OPEC just pulled a plot twist. Instead of raising production as planned, the cartel’s April output dropped by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 27.24 million bpd, according to a new Bloomberg survey published on Thursday. Half the decline came from Venezuela, where Chevron and other producers are winding down ahead of renewed U.S. sanctions. But the real head-scratcher? The UAE and Saudi Arabia—who had clearance to pump more—barely budged.
The UAE actually cut oil production by 80,000 bpd, despite securing a carve-out to raise production. Riyadh added a mere 20,000 bpd—far below its quota bump. The worst offenders—Iraq and the UAE—are still over their targets.
This is a full-blown credibility test. OPEC+ recently vowed to offset 4.57 million bpd of overproduction by June 2026, mostly through reductions this year. At the same time, they tripled May’s planned output hike to 411,000 bpd, a move that most…
