Many Canadians consumers under the pressure of high interest rates may feel that the economy is on the brink of a recession. The expert outlook, however, is mixed – with a cautionary consensus.
“Based on our indicators, I don’t see a recession playing out in Canada,” states Travis Shaw, senior vice-president, sector lead, global sovereign ratings at Morningstar DBRS. “If we look at the latest forecasts from the major banks, no one is calling for an outright recession, but economic growth will definitely slow down.”
Economic indicators are indeed showing weakness and “when we look at the whole together, we see that it disappoints economists’ expectations,” points out Alexandra Ducharme, an economist at National Bank of Canada. The bank has built an index that mixes 16 leading indicators such as the evolution of the loonie, the manufacturing and services ISMs, SME optimism, unemployment claims and building permit…
