Bonds Trail S&P 500 For 5 Years: Will Iran Shock Snap Streak? – Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (ARCA:VOO), iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT)

U.S. bonds are on track to log ten straight six-month periods of underperformance relative to stocks, a record-breaking stretch of underperformance since 2020 that’s rippling through markets and shaking up traditional investor portfolios.

The streak spans five years and reflects a regime shift in global markets—one driven by rising interest rates, an overstretched fiscal backdrop, and a tech-driven equity boom.

Yet with geopolitical tensions escalating in Iran, some may wonder whether the prolonged cycle of bond underperformance compared to stocks might finally turn.

See Also: War, Oil, And S&P 500: Here’s How The Stock Market Behaves In Energy Crises

Bond Market Underperformance

A way to assess the relative performance of the bond market compared to the stock market is by tracking the ratio between the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF VOO; below is a table showing this dynamic over the past 10…