Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin AVIV Ratio remains below historical peak levels, indicating a potential climb above $330,000 before a cycle top is confirmed.
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Over-the-counter Bitcoin holdings are down significantly in 2025, pointing to strategic accumulation by Strategy, Metaplanet, BlackRock and others.
Bitcoin (BTC) price has had a rocky month, but recent analysis indicates that BTC could surge another 300% this cycle. Technical analyst Gert van Lagen’s X post highlights the AVIV Ratio, a metric that compares Bitcoin’s active capitalization (money in motion) to its total invested capitalization (realized capital, excluding miner rewards).
Historically, when the AVIV Ratio crosses its +3σ mean deviation, it has signaled a cycle top. For example, BTC was $1,200 in 2013, near $20,000 in 2017, and around $69,000 in 2021. Currently, the AVIV Ratio’s level remains below these past peaks, suggesting Bitcoin could climb to at least $330,000…
