In a morning note, ANZ Research said: “The stalling progress on disinflation since the start of 2024 is noteworthy and would be a cause of concern if persistent. If prices begin to normalise beginning March, which is our baseline scenario, we think inflation can remain on path to reaching 2 per cent sustainably, allowing the Fed to cut rates.
“The data out today suggest the FOMC will signal caution in initiating rate-cut cycle and highlight the need to see further data to gauge underlying inflation momentum. We think it may take a few months for the data to settle.”
The probability of a May quarter-point rate cut fell below 10 per cent, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of a June cut was modestly lower to 57.2 per cent, while that of July edged higher to 47.3 per cent.
Separately, oil surged above $US85 a barrel, while iron ore extended its slide, falling below $US103 a tonne. In its March update, the…
