A 25% tariff as announced by Trump on Monday would likely cause steel prices to rise by $100 to $150 a short ton, the analysts said in a Nov. 26 note. For US aluminum prices, the Midwest premium over that of the London Metal Exchange could more than double to as much as 50 cents more — a move that could benefit six US smelters. Still, the analysts warned “it could take years to reconfigure this supply chain.”
“Equity investors would likely be cautious in pricing duration on any windfall profits — assuming that this is seen as a negotiating tactic/temporary impact, in our view,” the analysts wrote. “During Trump’s first term administration, we saw steel buyers stockpile on tariff headlines and would expect something similar this time around.”
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has suggested her country could respond to Trump’s threatened tariffs with levies of its own, warning the economic…
