A Treasury market meltdown postmortem

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Whatever Stephen Miller or Bill Ackman might say, it was the bond market that beat the Trump administration into an abrupt “PAUSE” for tariff negotiations.

The S&P 500 had nearly fallen into a bear market, but just two days of Treasuries puking was enough to force a rethink. The NYT has a good inside account of how much it swayed him. As Trump himself admitted:

I was watching the bond market. The bond market is very tricky, I was watching it. But if you look at it now it’s beautiful. The bond market right now is beautiful . . . I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.

The bond market is hardly “beautiful” again. It’s notable that while stonks did stonksy things after president Trump backed down, the bond market has been much more circumspect. The 10-year Treasury yield…

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