On Friday (September 19), global bond and foreign exchange markets exhibited complex dynamics driven by the policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond (UST 10y) remained stable within the range of 4.10%-4.14%, with market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in October reaching as high as 92%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.5%, but a 7-2 voting split and plans to reduce ETF purchases pushed the yield on Japan’s 10-year government bond (JGB 10y) to 1.64%, the highest level since July 2008. The USD/JPY pair oscillated above 148.00, approaching the upper Bollinger Band at 148.415, with bullish momentum prevailing.
This article analyzes the movement of USD/JPY and the interconnected logic of the US and Japanese bond markets from the perspective of their high correlation, combining fundamental and technical analyses,…
