Peak Pessimism on U.S. Bonds? A Summer Rally Might Be Near – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT)

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As long-dated Treasury yields hover just below 5% and Moody’s strips the U.S. of its final AAA credit rating, investor sentiment toward U.S. government bonds has reached some of its most bearish levels in decades.

Much of the gloom surrounds concerns over rising fiscal deficits, ballooning interest expenses and a perceived lack of political will to rein in debt.

At the center of the debate is President Donald Trump‘s tax plan, dubbed as the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill,” which is now under fire for potentially worsening America’s fiscal outlook.

According to new estimates from the Congressional Budget Office released Wednesday, the legislation is expected to slash federal revenue by $3.67 trillion through 2034, while cutting just $1.25 trillion in spending.

The net effect: a $2.4 trillion increase in the federal deficit over the next decade.

This comes at a time when the U.S. deficit-to-GDP ratio already stands at 6%-7%, levels rarely…

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