CHARTS: Rare earth export restrictions, price spikes and the risks of demand destruction

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Wudang Lama Temple, Baotou, Inner Mongolia. The epicentre of China’s rare earth industry. Stock image.

26-fold price increase in 31 months

From January 2009 through August 2011, the monthly average price of dysprosium (Dy) oxide (China FOB) increased 26-fold, from $91/kg to $2,377/kg.

This price spike is often attributed to China halting rare earth exports to Japan amidst a territorial dispute, but in reality the rally had started months prior and was accelerated by a multitude of different forces; namely, falling Chinese export quotas, rising Chinese export duties, China’s weaponization of rare earth exports, a clampdown on illegal production in the nation, and resultant speculation and panic buying by end users.

This year, with China imposing export restrictions on a suite of rare earth materials earlier this month, including Dy oxide and other Dy-containing products, such as NdFeB magnets,…

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