‘There will be blood’: JP Morgan forecasts 60 per cent chance of global recession this year
As global markets roil in the wake of Donald Trump’s global tariffs, investment bank JP Morgan has said it now sees a 60 per cent chance of the global economy entering recession by year end – up from 40 per cent previously.
In a note titled, “There will be blood,” chief economist Bruce Kasman said the so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs amount to the largest tax hike since 1968.
“The effect of this tax hike is likely to be magnified – through retaliation, a slide in US business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions. The shock is likely to be only modestly dampened by the flexibility tariff hikes afford for further fiscal policy easing,” Mr Kasman and his team write.
While it remains to be seen whether the tariffs could be implemented and potentially negotiated, the analysts say: “However, we view the full implementation…
