The U.S. bond market is kind of like ice cream roulette right now

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It’s 17 degrees in New York and the wind is soul crushing. So the fact I’m dragging economist Allison Schrager to get ice cream is a little … unusual.

“I’m not sure this would be my first choice,” Schrager admitted as we walked up the frozen sidewalk. Luckily, Schrager follows the bond market at the Manhattan Institute, and the particular ice cream shop we’re visiting has a lot in common with the bond market right now. Really.

Surprise Scoop bills itself as “The World’s First Ice Cream Roulette Shop.” At first, it doesn’t look like much. It’s an empty room with white walls and a purple floor. There’s nobody greeting you — just some very loud music and some very big touchscreens on the wall.

“Welcome to Surprise Scoop,” the touchscreen reads. “All flavors are randomly selected. No flavor choosing…

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