In a late November 2024 Barchart article on the U.S. bond market, I highlighted the reasons why long-term rates are not falling with short-term rates. On November 27, 2024, the nearby 30-year Treasury bond futures were at the 119-12 level, with the TLT ETF at $92.90 per share. In early February, the long bond futures were lower at 114-23, and the TLT ETF was trading at $88.25 as long-term rates remained elevated.
The bearish trend in the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond futures markets remains intact in early February 2025. Still, the long bond futures have not challenged the October 2023 low as they continue consolidating.
The monthly chart highlights the bearish trend, with the long bond futures hovering near the October 2023 lows. However, since 2024, the futures have consolidated in a 110-19 to 127-22 range. At the 114-23 level, they are closer to the low than the high of the just over one-year trading band.
The Fed curbed…
