“The reality is that juniors often lead the charge in finding new deposits,” Mark Ferguson, director of metals and mining research, said during S&P Global’s quarterly State of the Market webinar. “When they’re underfunded, the whole pipeline feels it.”
The cautious outlook comes as global exploration budgets for nonferrous metals declined by 3% in 2024 to $12.5 billion from $12.9 billion last year, with juniors bearing the brunt of the cuts. Some high commodity prices haven’t helped juniors raise capital. Even gold exploration is hurting.
Projects pipeline
The effects of shrinking budgets and financing struggles have shown up in S&P’s measure of new exploration activity. Its pipeline activity index (PAI), which tracks drilling, financing, and project milestones, dropped to 63 in the third quarter of 2024—the lowest level since 2016.
As new activity declined, the exploration price index…
