Entrepreneur and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes on Thursday disclosed a 25% success rate in his market predictions, rating himself as only getting 2 out of 8 calls correct over the past year. But the kicker, he wrote in his new essay, is that he’s remained profitable by leveraging macroeconomic trends in the long term.
“So the Batting Average = .250. That’s pretty shit to the common man,” Hayes admitted in a blog, using a baseball analogy to describe his prediction accuracy. The crypto expert’s self-reported scorecard covers major market calls from November 2023 to September 2024, spanning predictions about Treasury bill issuance, banking crises, cryptocurrency price movements, and central bank policies.
While acknowledging his struggles with short-term forecasts, Hayes reaffirmed his conviction in what he calls the “volatility supercycle” thesis, which underpins his long-term market outlook.
Just last week, Maelstrom Fund, the…
