With inflation moderating and job growth slowing, the first rate cut from the Federal Reserve will … [+]
Following the monthly jobs report on Friday, it is almost certain that rate cuts from the Federal Reserve will begin at the September 18 meeting. While job growth was lower than expected, the U.S. economy still created 142,000 payroll jobs in August, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%. Futures are pricing in about a 30% chance of a 50 (0.50%) basis point rate cut, but the job growth was enough to expect that the Fed begins with just 25 (0.25%) basis points at the September meeting.
Number Of Expected Rate Cuts
Wednesday’s consumer inflation (CPI) reading is the final critical impediment to beginning the easing cycle. The Cleveland Fed’s CPI estimate for the upcoming report is 2.6%, which matches consensus…
