Westwood Insight – Navigating expectations for Iberian hydrogen

As expected, the majority (87%) of the 16.7GW (LHV) production capacity on the Iberian Peninsula targets industrial decarbonisation and refining, which is a similar theme across major European markets where the initial focus is on replacing existing ‘grey’ hydrogen users, as existing infrastructure can be leveraged for renewable hydrogen projects. This focus is driven in-part by explicit national targets, such as in Spain which is targeting 74% of industrial hydrogen to be RFNBO[4]-compliant by 2030. In Portugal, two projects that have reached FID are located at Bondalti’s Estarreja chemical complex and Galp’s Sines refinery – covering 94% of Portugal’s existing hydrogen demand. Although Iberia is positioned as a potential key export to Europe, significant pipeline and port infrastructure must be developed before substantial exports become a primary focus for project developers.

Securing offtake and…