Cristian Martin
Introduction
Many investors may be aware of Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale oil/gas discovery and unfulfilled potential, given the country’s dysfunctional political and economic environment. YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) the state-controlled oil company controls most of the acreage but has been hobbled by political interference from being able to fund full development. A handful of private companies have had greater success, such as Pampa Energia (PAM) and Tecpetrol, but the most successful has been Vista Energia (NYSE:VIST).
Performance
From its IPO in 2017 to Oct 2022, the stock severely underperformed driven by Argentina’s risk despite posting solid execution and growth. With the end of the last Kirchner/Peronist government, replaced by a business-friendly Milei administration, the stock has seen nearly 4x gains. Only Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras (PBR), including dividends, has fared as well.
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