In just the last week, the chance of a 25-bps rate cut in June have plunged to 9.9% from 18.8% a week ago
- U.S. Treasury notes and bonds are meandering just off their yearly lows.
- Rate cut odds for 2024 are continuing to fall, with the odds of a 25-bps rate cut in June down to 9.9% from 18.8% a week ago.
- Bond volatility has contracted over the past week after a modest expansion through most of April.
Market Update: U.S. 10-year Yield up to 4.661%
Still-elevated commodity prices and three successive months of inflation data trending in the wrong direction have been a significant problem for U.S. Treasuries. At the start of April, there was north of a 60% chance of a 25 basis-point (bps) rate cut in June. That has been decimated in recent weeks:
Only one full 25-bps rate cut is…
