If the consensus on Wall Street is often wrong — and evidence from 2023 does little to dispel that notion — then in the year ahead investors are facing either the mother of all rallies or a selloff for the ages.
That’s because most investment outlooks from major banks, advisers and asset managers envisage the same middle-of-the-road scenario in 2024: They see interest rates finally starting to bite, a benign economic slowdown, and a central bank pivot to easier policies setting the stage for a late-year rebound. Stocks and bonds — which rallied strongly in the final weeks of 2023 — are mostly seen posting positive yet underwhelming gains.
It’s not the only outcome laid out in the more-than 650 calls assembled here by Bloomberg News, but it is the predominant view. Amundi, JPMorgan Asset Management and Vanguard are among those predicting “mild” recessions. To BNY Mellon Wealth Management it will be…
