Excited about 2024? US equity strategists sure aren’t. While none of them are projecting a big crash, per se, strategists’ average 2024 target price for the S&P 500 Index exhibits a collective inability to envision much upside over the next 12 months. History suggests that we should prepare for the possibility that they are underestimating the opportunity.
The S&P 500 would gain about 2.4% from its Dec. 21 close if it tracked the average forecast, a pessimistic outlook by historical standards. If you look at strategists’ year-end calls collected in early January of each calendar year since 2000, the average projection has implied an 8.3% upside, and there’s never been a time in the sample period when strategists projected a decline. With that context, the current call — for an only 2.4% increase — is just about as bad as it gets. If you believe the strategists, you’re better off putting your money in 12-month Treasury…
