However, Griffin says, the notion that the industry has already entered a supercycle and talk of structural deficits may be premature at the moment.
The supercycle is yet to launch says Griffin and after a period of restocking (and hoarding in some instances) this year and next tightness in most markets will ease including lithium and battery raw materials. Notable exceptions are zinc and aluminum which will be affected by power issues in China and Europe.
Further out to the end of the decade the demand picture remains healthy underpinned by post-pandemic economic recovery and supply worries amid the energy crunch in Europe and China:
“When you look out to 2030, structural demand issues associated with the energy transition really start to have an effect.”
Woodmac sees growth for lead and zinc in the 50% range, roughly 20% for copper and aluminum, 40% for nickel and 70–80% for rare earths, cobalt and graphite out to…
